Will Regeneron Stock Rebound After Its Recent 6% Fall?


The stock price of Regeneron (NASDAQ:REGN) has seen a 6% fall over the last twenty-one trading days, while it is down 7% over the last week. The volatility in REGN stock is being driven by the developments for REGEN-COV, its Covid-19 antibody cocktail. The therapy loses its efficacy against Omicron, which is currently spreading fast across the globe. The U.S. government also paused the distribution of antibody treatments from Regeneron and Eli Lilly for the same reason. More recently, one of the Wall Street analysts has also downgraded REGN stock, and these developments have not boded well for Regeneron, with its stock falling from levels of $660 on Dec 13, 2021 to under $600 currently.

However, now that REGN stock has seen a decline of 6% in a month, will it continue its downward trajectory, or is a rise imminent? Going by historical performance, there is a higher chance of a rise in REGN stock over the next monthOut of 516 instances in the last ten years that REGN stock saw a twenty-one day decline of 6% or more, 312 of them resulted in REGN stock rising over the subsequent one month period (twenty-one trading days). This historical pattern reflects 312 out of 516, or about a 60% chance of a rise in REGN stock over the coming month. See our analysis on Regeneron Stock Chance of A Rise for more details.

While REGN stock may see higher levels going forward, it is helpful to see how its peers stack up. Check out Regeneron Stock Comparison With Peers to see how REGN stock compares against peers on metrics that matter. You can find more such useful comparisons on Peer Comparisons.

Calculation of ‘Event Probability‘ and ‘Chance of Rise‘ using last ten years data

  • After moving -6.9% or more over a five-day period, the stock rose in the next five days on 58% of the occasions.
  • After moving -3.1% or more over a ten-day period, the stock rose in the next ten days on 56% of the occasions
  • After moving -5.8% or more over a twenty-one-day period, the stock rose in the next twenty-one days on 60% of the occasions.

This pattern suggests that there are higher chances of a rise in REGN stock over the next five days, ten days, and one month.

Regeneron (REGN) Stock Return (Recent) Comparison With Peers

  • Five-Day Return: JAZZ highest at 3.5%; REGN lowest at -6.9%
  • Ten-Day Return: JAZZ highest at 3.9%; BMRN lowest at -5.9%
  • Twenty-One Days Return: JAZZ highest at 7.2%; REGN lowest at -5.8%

While REGN stock can see a rebound, the Covid-19 crisis has created many pricing discontinuities which can offer attractive trading opportunities. For example, you’ll be surprised how counter-intuitive the stock valuation is for IDEXX vs Vertex.

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Here’s a high-quality portfolio that’s beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.

 Returns Jan 2022
MTD [1]
2022
YTD [1]
2017-22
Total [2]
 REGN Return -5% -5% 63%
 S&P 500 Return -1% -1% 110%
 Trefis MS Portfolio Return -5% -5% 274%

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 1/7/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

Invest with Trefis Market Beating Portfolios

See all Trefis Price Estimates

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.



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