What’s Behind The Recent Surge In Barrick Gold Stock?


Barrick Gold stock (NYSE: GOLD) has increased more than 3% in just the last one week, outperforming the S&P 500 which was marginally down during this period. If you look at the last ten days, GOLD stock is down 1.7%, but it has registered an increase of almost 6% in the last one month. The point to note is that the stock has outperformed the broader market during both these periods, as well. The recent rise in Barrick Gold stock was driven by the strengthening of gold prices. Global gold price per ounce has gone up from $1,797 to $1,818, up 1.15% in just a week. Over the last one month, also, the price of the yellow metal is up 1%. This was mainly the result of weakening of the dollar index and rising inflationary pressure, leading to the rise in value of gold as a hedge.

Now, is GOLD stock set to rise further or could we expect some correction? We believe that there is a 51% chance of a rise in GOLD stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on GOLD Stock Chance of Rise. We estimate Barrick Gold valuation to be around $30 per share.


Twenty-One Day: GOLD 5.8%, vs. S&P500 -1.2%; Outperformed market

(27% likelihood event; 51% probability of rise over next 21 days)

  • GOLD stock increased 5.8% the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) drop of 1.2%
  • A change of 5.8% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 27% likelihood event, which has occurred 691 times out of 2515 in the last ten years
  • Of these 691 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 352 occasions
  • This points to a 51% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: GOLD -1.7%, vs. S&P500 -2.1%; Outperformed market

(40% likelihood event; 47% probability of rise over next 10 days)

  • GOLD stock decreased 1.7% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to a broader market (S&P500) drop of 2.1%
  • A change of -1.7% or more over ten trading days is a 40% likelihood event, which has occurred 1015 times out of 2517 in the last ten years
  • Of these 1015 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 476 occasions
  • This points to a 47% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: GOLD 3.2%, vs. S&P500 -0.3%; Outperformed market

(27% likelihood event; 49% probability of rise over next five days)

  • GOLD stock increased 3.2% over a five-day trading period till 01/17/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) drop of 0.3%
  • A change of 3.2% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 27% likelihood event, which has occurred 669 times out of 2517 in the last ten years
  • Of these 669 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 329 occasions
  • This points to a 49% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Here’s a high-quality portfolio that’s beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.

Returns Jan 2022
MTD [1]
2022
YTD [1]
2017-22
Total [2]
 GOLD Return -2% -2% 17%
 S&P 500 Return -2% -2% 108%
 Trefis MS Portfolio Return -7% -7% 264%

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 1/17/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

Invest with Trefis Market Beating Portfolios

See all Trefis Price Estimates

 


The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.



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