The 200-DMA at risk of being broken hoovers around 78.15

  • NZD/JPY plummets 120-pips as market participants dump assets that have the “risk” word attached to them.
  • The market mood dampened on the back of aggressive US stock selling after the Fed released its last meeting minutes.
  • NZD/JPY Price Forecast: Neutral-bullish, but downside risks remains as the spot approaches the 200-DMA.

The New Zealand dollar pares most of its weekly gains and some more as market participants assess the Federal Reserve hawkish minutes released on Wednesday. In the meantime, the NZD/JPY pair slides some 0.74%, trading at 78.15 at the time of writing.

On Thursday’s overnight session, the NZD/JPY plunged from 79.14 to 77.90s on the back of a risk-off market environment, spurred by the sell-off of US stocks after the Federal Reserve released its monetary policy meeting minutes.

NZD/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The NZD/JPY daily chart shows that the cross-currency pair is neutral- bullish. Even though the 50 and the 100-daily moving averages (DMAs) reside above the spot price, the 200-DMA is below the aforementioned, meaning the uptrend remains in place.

Lately, the 50-DMA is accelerating towards the 100-DMA. In the event of the former crossing under the latter, it would trigger a bearish signal, but caution is warranted, as the overall longer time-frame trend is bullish unless the 200-DMA gives way.

The NZD/JPY first resistance would be the 100-DMA at 78.55, which opens the door for further gains once broken. The next ceiling would be December 30, 2021, daily high at 78.93, followed by the January 4 cycle high of 79.22.

On the flip side, the pair’s first support level would be the 200-DMA at 78.14, which would expose the immediate 78.00 psychological level once broken. The breach of the latter would expose December 8, 2021, the previous resistance-turned-support level at 77.56, followed by the 77.00 figure.


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