Four tries to break it in the past eight days
NZD/USD hasn’t closed above the 55-day moving average since June 9 but it’s sure trying hard. The pair crossed above the line four times since last Wednesday but has continually been rejected.
The US dollar ran into trouble again today on a strong Treasury auction but that move hasn’t held up and NZD/USD is back below the 55-dma.
More important than that level is probably the 0.7105 and the three highs clocking right around that level.
On the fundamental side, I’m skeptical of NZD. It’s been a darling of the FX market because of covid suppression but I think the world will have to move to mitigation strategy and that’s going to be a painful transition in New Zealand, Australia and China.
New Zealand in particular is vulnerable to headlines above covid cases and at this point, I’m convinced that’s only a matter of time.
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