UBS Sees Senate Rushing ‘One Big, Beautiful Bill’ Toward High-Stakes Finale
Kevin Helms
Economics
UBS Sees Senate Rushing ‘One Big, Beautiful Bill’ Toward High-Stakes Finale
UBS spotlights blistering Senate momentum on a sweeping economic bill packed with permanent tax incentives and trade reprieves, all under crushing pressure to meet July deadlines.
UBS Sees Fast-Track Senate Action on Key Economic Bill Amid Trade Reprieves and Deadline Pressure
Global investment bank and financial services giant UBS published its Washington Weekly report on June 13, providing a comprehensive update on U.S. legislative and trade developments. The publication, issued by UBS Wealth Management USA and authored by the UBS Editorial Team, examined the progress of the “One Big, Beautiful Bill” as it moves from the House to the Senate.
The Senate Finance Committee is expected to deliver the most significant revisions, potentially softening proposed Medicaid cuts and making business tax breaks like bonus depreciation and research and development credits permanent, rather than expiring in five years as the House bill outlines. The Senate version may also narrow the state and local tax (SALT) deduction. UBS emphasized the speed of the Senate’s approach, stating:
The rush is part of an effort to meet President Trump’s self-imposed deadline of 4 July. While the 4 July deadline may not be met, the overall time pressure means that what passes the Senate is likely to be what is signed into law.
The report detailed how Republicans are using budget reconciliation—a mechanism created by Congress in 1974 that allows certain fiscal measures to pass with a simple Senate majority—to advance the bill. While this allows the legislation to bypass the usual 60-vote threshold, it imposes strict requirements. Provisions without direct budgetary consequences, such as a 10-year federal ban on state AI regulations and energy permitting measures, may be eliminated. The Senate Parliamentarian remains the final authority on whether these provisions can be retained, and this vetting process could shape the final version of the bill.
UBS also addressed recent trade policy shifts, highlighting a temporary reprieve for the Trump administration as a federal appeals court stayed a ruling that would have overturned several tariffs imposed under emergency powers. Meanwhile, the U.S. and China reached a six-month agreement granting American access to rare earth minerals in return for limited relief on export controls. Although the broader 90-day pause on new tariff hikes—set to expire on Aug. 12—remains unresolved, the rare earths deal effectively maintains current terms.
Referring to ongoing bilateral negotiations, UBS wrote:
With the underlying tariffs in legal limbo, the Trump administration signaled that it may extend the deadline on these discussions.
Treasury Secretary Bessent further indicated the administration may prolong its July 8 deadline for reaching new trade deals, even as sectoral tariffs on items like semiconductors, lumber, and pharmaceuticals remain active and legally robust.
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