Cuomo, Mamdani neck and neck in final NYC mayoral poll
by Brandon Conradis
New York Assembly member Zohran Mamdani has effectively drawn even with former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) in the Democratic primary for New York City mayor and surpasses him in the final round of a ranked-choice simulation, according to a new poll released Monday.
In a final survey of the race from Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill, Cuomo led Mamdani 35 percent to 32 percent overall, within the poll’s margin of error. New York City Comptroller Brad Lander came in at 13 percent, followed by City Council Speaker Adrienne Adams at 8 percent and former Comptroller Scott Stringer at 3 percent. Four percent of voters were undecided.
But the survey also allowed respondents to rank their top choices, as the primary uses ranked choice voting. In the first round, Cuomo led Mamdani 36 percent to 34 percent. In the eighth round of voting, once all the other candidates were eliminated, Mamdani came out on top, beating Cuomo 52 percent to 48 percent.
The ranked choice system for New York City’s mayoral primary allows voters to select their top five candidates in order of preference. If no candidate surpasses 50 percent in the first round of voting, the candidate in last place is eliminated, and their votes are redistributed to the other candidates according to how they ranked their other choices.
The latest findings point to continued momentum for Mamdani, a democratic socialist who has emerged as the leading progressive choice in the Democratic race to succeed embattled Mayor Eric Adams (D), who is running as an independent. In the previous Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill survey, taken in May, Cuomo led Mamdani 35 percent to 23 percent.
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“Over five months, Mamdani’s support has surged from 1% to 32%, while Cuomo finishes near where he began,” said Spencer Kimball, Emerson College Polling’s executive director. “In the ranked-choice simulation, Mamdani gains 18 points compared to Cuomo’s 12, putting him ahead in the final round for the first time in an Emerson poll.”
The survey is the latest to suggest a close race as voters head to the polls Tuesday. A Marist poll released last week found Cuomo leading Mamdani in the seventh round of voting, 55 percent to 45 percent.
Cuomo has been the clear favorite as Democrats look to oust Adams, who was the subject of a federal corruption case that was eventually dropped by the Justice Department, drawing accusations that the mayor had sought to curry favor with President Trump.
A win by Cuomo this week would represent a stunning resurgence for the former governor, who resigned from his job as the Empire State’s top executive in 2021 amid sexual harassment allegations and a brewing scandal involving accusations that his administration concealed nursing home deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Cuomo has earned the backing of notable figures in the Democratic Party, most recently Rep. James Clyburn (D-S.C.), the influential Black Congressional Caucus member. And while Mamdani has emerged as the clear progressive favorite, scoring the endorsements of Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), he has also drawn criticism from the establishment. Last week, The New York Times editorial board urged voters not to support Mamdani, despite its previous pledge not to endorse in local elections.
The Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill survey was conducted June 18-20 with a sample size of 833 likely voters and a margin of error of 3.3 percentage points. The first round of ranked choice voting was conducted with a sample size of 800 likely voters and a margin of error of 3.4 percent. The final round was conducted with 729 voters and had a margin of error of 3.6 percent.
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