The data is the RBNZ’s Q3 Survey of inflation expectations, due at 0300 GMT.
In the past this release has given the Kiwi $ a bit of a poke around. Given the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to hike rates next week (August 18, a 25bp cash rate rise is 100% priced by rates markets) the data today may not have too much of an impact, but if it shpows surging inflation expectations it should be s positive input to the NZD.
A brief previews from ASB:
- Shorter-term inflation expectations from the RBNZ survey are expected to ratchet higher, given higher headline inflation (up to 3.3% in Q2 and on track to approach 4% in H2 this year), increasing capacity constraints, and the uptick in cost and price expectations in various business surveys.
- The one- and two-year-ahead readings for CPI inflation should move well above 2% (from 1.87% and 2.05% in Q2), with more sizeable increases expected for the 1-year ahead measure.
- Our focus will also be on whether longer-term inflation expectations (currently 2.06% and 2.02% for 5 and 10-years ahead) move higher as well. Contained readings for expected inflation reduce the risk of the RBNZ falling behind the curve and having to play catch-up with more OCR hikes further down the track.
- expects … inflation expectations will continue to push higher this quarter
- The latest survey comes hot on the heels of the much stronger than expected June quarter inflation result. Recent months have also seen firm indications for domestic activity and widespread reports of growing cost pressures.
Invest in yourself. See our forex education hub.