FOMC minutes kick-start a bearish storm

  • GBP/USD bears take over on the back of the hawkish Fed. 
  • GBP/USD bulls need to commit at this juncture or risk bears taking over to below 1.3500. 

GBP/USD was hit hard on the back of the Federal Open market Committee minutes today resulting in a quick drop into an area that might be expected to act as support. The following is an analysis that illustrates the price action and potential outcomes from both a bullish and bearish standpoint. 

GBP/USD H1 chart

The price action would be expected to result in an onwards move to the upside from support. However, as illustrated below, the recent sell-off has left a strong bearish candle close and a subsequent additional bearish open in the current candle. This opens the prospects of a downside continuation below support and into buy stop territory:

GBP/USD H1 chart

The buy stops offer liquidity for the bears to exit shorts and reenter long positions at a discount. This could be the ticket for the daily continuation as illustrated in the following daily chart. However, given the price imbalance between 1.3510 and 1.3480, there could be an additional move to the downside prior to the next bullish accumulation. 

GBP/USD daily chart

On the daily chart, we can see that the 50-day moving average will align around 1.34 the figure should the price sell-off through the near term support and to below 1.3500. This could be targeted in such a scenario. On the other hand, if the bulls do take back control, a break of 1.3600 resistance opens the risk of a fast move through thin volumes once buy stops are triggered to 1.3700 and 1.3800 thereafter. 

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