The data had something for everyone with the headline NFP number much weaker than expectations but the unemployment rate much lower. That caused whipsaw action in the EURUSD as traders reacted to the headline in NFP jobs, then the unemployment rate. The dollar initially fell with the EURUSD moving higher. Then moved higher and is sort of back where it started.
In between, the price moved above and below the 100 and 200 hour moving averages. The current price is just below the 100 hour moving average at 1.13027. The 200 hour moving averages at 1.13152. Stay below is more bearish. Move above those levels and the bias tilt back to the upside.
The 10 year yield is up to 1.766%. That’s near the high price from 2021 at 1.774%. Move above would increase the upward bias. The yield on the last day of December was at 1.514%. The gain of 25 basis points this week is significant.
Overall, the Fed remains on track to tighten with expectations for March hike at 90%.
In the premarket for US stocks, the major indices are now all lower:
- Dow industrial average -47 points
- S&P -9.3 points
- NASDAQ index -70 points
Also play for the EURUSD is the stronger inflation numbers today which showed 5% headline inflation. Retail sales were also a stronger which may prompt the ECB to start to rethink its dovish stance. That is contributing to what to do for the pair. As the chart shows above, the price remains near the middle one has been a up and down trading range.