Can-Fite Biopharma Phase 2/3 Psoriasis trial

The science

Can-Fite swings for the fences and has a track record of missing its targets in trials. They failed to show a difference for Piclidenoson at 12 weeks in their last Phase 3 psoriasis trial back in 2015. So they bumped their primary endpoint up to 16 weeks, tried a higher 3mg dosage, and are screening for their therapeutic target this time around. The fact that the higher dosage was chosen at the interim analysis was good news.

The business

They seem fairly well connected. Can-Fite is set up to capitalize on a successful Phase 3 trial, with solid partnerships and logistics already sorted out. The problem is that their drug works slower than Amgen’s Otezla. They probably have about a year’s worth of cash after the recent exercise of warrants. At least they are resilient to failures, but they could really use a win in a late-stage trial.

The odds of success

60%. Had they chosen 24 weeks with PASI 90 as their primary endpoint, their odds could have been a lot better (~95% chance of success). The 1mg increase in dosage is doing most of the heavy lifting for their chances here. I would have demanded different parameters for the primary endpoint if I was designing this study.

2mg failed to show a difference from placebo at 16 weeks with the PASI 75, 24 weeks PASI 90 would have been better

My position

My intention is to open a position after Tyme Technologies release their results in late January. If $CANF releases results prior to $TYME, I’ll have missed this one.

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