$APT sales data trends : pennystocks


Disclaimer, as usual, not financial advice. Do your own research and measure your own risks.

This smaller DD was inspired by a larger post published here yesterday. Kudos to u/Ok-Philosopher-595. TLDR from his DD:

APT is a significantly underpriced Canadian PPE manufacturer. Please read the whole thing and enjoy it as much as I did.

The most interesting question is how much COVID would REALLY impact their bottom line?

I believe it can be answered by Amazon Market public data.

Let’s start with simple facts:

  • The company’s bread and butter are sales of N-95 medical-grade masks. This product was in high demand during the early days of the pandemic, but as shortages were resolved, the demand has been mediocre. So much so to force the company to give negative guidance on their latest 10-Q report.

Sales for the Disposable Protective Apparel segment for the three months ended September 30, 2021 decreased by $17,956,000, or 80.3%, to $4,403,000, compared to $22,359,000 for the same period of 2020. This segment decrease was due to a 92.3% decrease in sales of face masks, a 91.9% decrease in face shields and a 33.1% decrease in sales of disposable protective garments. The decreases for face masks, face shields and disposable protective garments were primarily due to increased demand resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic in the third quarter of 2020. Future sales of face mask and face shields are expected to be in line with pre-pandemic levels*. Sales for the disposable protective garments in the third quarter of 2021 were down as inventory levels in the supply chain, primarily with our major international channel partner, were higher than historical levels, as a result of record sales in the first and second quarter of 2021. This partner’s sales to its end users for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2021 were significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels due to strong open orders, generated largely in 2020.* Open orders for the disposable protective garments are now more in line with pre-pandemic levels and sales in the coming quarters could be negatively affected as current inventory levels are higher than historical levels*. We are working closely with all of our channel partners to uncover new end-customer sales opportunities.*

  • APT sells other products for builders and other PPE items too, but their largest quantity item is N-95 grade medical masks.

  • The N-95 is available for sale on Amazon Marketplace here. This gives us the product ASIN, which we will use for further analysis B086X743W4, it’s an identifier. Please, note that the Amazon marketplace is only one of MANY venues where N-95 trades, so all numbers.

I will be using 2 services for this DD:

  1. Keepa to track historical product rank on the Amazon marketplace.

  2. Profitguru to estimate sales based on the product ASIN.

Let’s start with Keepa and see the N-95 ranks overall and in individual categories. Amazon marketplace ranks are based on total sales and the lower the number is – the better. Ranks are relative to overall Amazon marketplace performance, so we won’t get sales figures from it directly, this information is private and not shared by Amazon. The overall rank to sales correlation is not linear, as it includes all products sold on the marketplace. But comparing ranks over time does give us a useful insight into overall product demand.

Here the keepa chart for all time APT N-95 is tracked. Note that this is a ranking, meaning lower on the chart equates to higher sales.

r/pennystocks - $APT sales data trends

Close-up early in the pandemic:

r/pennystocks - $APT sales data trends

Close-up now:

r/pennystocks - $APT sales data trends

When the pandemic first broke out the rank reached 10,806 and now it’s back to 10,929 after being high 150,000+ as recently as November. It means Amazon Marketplace sells SIGNIFICANTLY more masks than it was 1-2 months ago. I expect this trend to be true across all the APT distribution channels.

Let’s dig into individual subcategory ranks. For some reason, keepa only gives data on 2 categories on recent months, but both are relevant:

r/pennystocks - $APT sales data trends

Pandemic started:

r/pennystocks - $APT sales data trends
  • Tools and Home Improvement it’s 12,895 (was 53,432 when the pandemic hit)

  • Disposable Respiratory Safety Masks it’s 82 (was 57 when the pandemic hit)

From the charts and numbers above I draw 2 conclusions:

  1. Demand for medical PPE is trending upwards and APT has a sizable chunk of it.

  2. APT significantly improved builders’ equipment sales which is a new line of products for them. That’s great news on its own.

Now with the product ASIN we can try to estimate sales using profitguru

r/pennystocks - $APT sales data trends

2 Amazon sellers currently move an estimated 580 packs of N-95 each. This gives us on a monthly basis: 580 * 2 * 30 * $52.07 ~ $1,809,600 in sales on Amazon alone, which excludes all the other channels they distribute their products through. It’s a far cry from the situation a month ago as you can see how much the 7-day avg and 30-day avg have grown.
**Note, APT does not sell directly B2C, instead, we are talking about sales by their distributors.

To add another data token towards the pile, let’s check Google Trends over the last 12 months:

r/pennystocks - $APT sales data trends

TLDR

$APT quietly prints money right now and likely will use them for further buybacks. It can be proven by trends in the Amazon marketplace. While we cannot estimate overall revenue, amazon sales have increased by a significant margin (a few times at least). This all goes against current market pricing and the company’s own guidance (which is probably the basis of the current market price). Please, refer to the full DD by u/Ok-Philosopher-595 for more information on the stock.



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