Ahead of the FOMC – research note highlights “strong downside risks to January payrolls”


Earlier preview notes are here:

Something to consider going into this meeting is highlighted by BoA, potential weakness of the labour market in January. Analysts at the bank not that the Omicron outbreak was a heavy negative for labour supply be cause or workers required to isolate:

  • 8.75m people reported not working because they were caring for someone or sick with Covid. This is up from 2.96mn on December 14

Thus:

  • We see strong downside risks to January payrolls

The FOMC will be aware of this and while its ‘transitory’ (cough) it’ll be a factor in discussion keeping the committee a little less hawkish (for now) than otherwise.




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